Update 1/30/2026: The new ACS data is out, and we have finished crunching the numbers. Click here for our analysis of OZ 2.0 eligible tracts.
New U.S. Census Bureau data that will determine OZ 2.0 eligibility is scheduled to be released on Thursday, January 29, 2026. But with a potential government shutdown looming, questions remain about whether Treasury’s official list of eligible census tracts could be delayed.
On this month’s episode of OZ NewsHour, Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans break down what the data release means for OZ 2.0.
Opportunity Zone News & Events
- U.S. Census Bureau 2024 Data Release Schedule
- OZ 2.0 Census Tract Eligibility Spreadsheet (Unofficial, using old data)
- Pursuit, Adoption of State-Level OZ Incentives on a Longer Timeline, Say Experts (Novogradac)
- OZ Equity Structuring Overview Part II (Ackman-Ziff Whitepaper)
- OZ Insiders Upcoming Events
- OZ Pitch Day -- March 12, 2026
- Debunking Opportunity Zone Myths: What You Need to Know Before States Redesignate in 2026 (FTB Gibbons)
- What OZ Funds Should Do in 2026 to Prepare for OZ 2.0 (OpportunityZones.com)
About OZ NewsHour
OZ NewsHour covers the key stories happening right now in the world of Opportunity Zones. Hosts Andy Hagans and Jimmy Atkinson discuss the powerful trends that investors, fund managers, real estate developers, and industry professionals need to know. If it's a must-know development in the Opportunity Zone world, we cover it here.
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Episode Summary
New Census Data and the OZ 2.0 Eligibility Timeline
This live episode of OZ NewsHour opens with a timely and consequential development for the Opportunity Zones program: the U.S. Census Bureau’s scheduled release of new five-year American Community Survey (ACS) data. Jimmy explains that the Census Bureau is releasing its 2020–2024 ACS five-year estimates on Thursday, January 29, 2026, including updated median family income figures for every census tract in the country. This is the data Treasury will use to determine which census tracts are eligible for Opportunity Zones 2.0 designation.
Jimmy notes that the data release was originally scheduled for two months earlier but was delayed by a prior government shutdown. While the Census Bureau data release is expected to occur on time, Andy raises concerns about a possible federal government shutdown that could delay Treasury’s publication of its official list of OZ 2.0-eligible census tracts.
Jimmy walks through the implications of a shutdown, referencing market odds suggesting a meaningful chance that the federal government could shut down over the coming weekend. If Treasury operations are paused, the publication of the official eligibility list could be delayed. However, Jimmy emphasizes that the underlying Census data will still be publicly available and accessible.
How Treasury Will Use the ACS Data
Jimmy explains that Treasury is expected to use the same approach it used during the original Opportunity Zones designation process in 2018: applying ACS five-year data to determine median family income at both the census tract and county level. Treasury will then apply the statutory eligibility rules to determine which tracts qualify.
At the time of the broadcast, the most current available data covered 2019–2023. Jimmy notes that this newer dataset will update those figures and could meaningfully shift eligibility outcomes. He reiterates that Opportunity Zones 2.0 eligibility criteria are more restrictive than those under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is expected to result in fewer total zones in the next round of designations.
Based on current modeling using older data, Jimmy estimates that the number of Opportunity Zones nationwide could decline from more than 8,700 under the current program to roughly 6,500 under OZ 2.0, representing a reduction of approximately 25%. He stresses that these figures are directional and will change once the new data is applied.
Independent Analysis and Early Access to Eligibility Lists
Even if Treasury delays its official release, Jimmy explains that several organizations—including Economic Innovation Group, Novogradac, and OpportunityZones.com—will independently analyze the Census data and publish eligibility lists. He notes that anyone with sufficient technical expertise could download the raw data and perform the analysis themselves, though it is a complex task.
Jimmy and Andy discuss OpportunityZones.com’s prior publication of a census tract eligibility spreadsheet released shortly after OZ 2.0 was enacted. That spreadsheet applied the new rules to then-available data to help stakeholders understand which tracts were near eligibility thresholds. Jimmy explains that this spreadsheet will be updated using the newly released ACS data.
For each census tract, the spreadsheet includes relevant metrics such as median family income comparisons and proximity to statutory thresholds, including the 70% income threshold and the 20% poverty threshold. Jimmy emphasizes that the spreadsheet is intended as a planning tool rather than an official determination.
Jimmy says OpportunityZones.com plans to provide an early look at its updated list to OZ Insiders members, potentially as soon as the afternoon following the Census release, with broader public publication shortly thereafter.
Government Shutdown Risk and Key OZ 2.0 Milestones
Andy asks whether a prolonged government shutdown could affect other Opportunity Zones deadlines. Jimmy responds that while a long shutdown could create inconveniences, it is unlikely to derail the overall OZ 2.0 timeline.
Jimmy outlines the major upcoming milestones:
- January 29, 2026: Census Bureau releases ACS 2020–2024 data
- February 2026 (expected): Treasury publishes the official list of eligible census tracts, including rural versus non-rural classifications
- July 1, 2026: States begin the nomination period for Opportunity Zones
- Second half of 2026: Treasury reviews state nominations
- January 1, 2027: New Opportunity Zones designations take effect
Jimmy notes that Treasury will also need to determine rural status for each tract, a step that was not required in 2018 and could add complexity to the process.
State-Level Opportunity Zone Incentives
The conversation then shifts to state-level Opportunity Zone incentives, referencing a recent Novogradac Journal of Tax Credits article titled “Pursuit, Adoption of State-Level OZ Incentives on a Longer Timeline, Say Experts.”
Jimmy highlights Ohio as a leading example of a state that has implemented supplemental OZ incentives, offering state-level tax credits tied to Opportunity Zone investments made within Ohio. He explains that other states are exploring whether they can replicate or adapt Ohio’s approach, though no other state currently has an identical program.
Quoting Jason Watkins of Novogradac, Jimmy explains that most states are expected to consider their own incentives only after federal OZ 2.0 designations are finalized. He notes that state legislatures often move slowly and may have competing priorities, making rapid adoption unlikely.
Jimmy walks through a visual timeline developed by Economic Innovation Group and Novogradac that aligns Census data releases, Treasury determinations, state nomination periods, and final designations through 2027.
CRE Refinancing Challenges and the Ackman-Ziff White Paper
Andy introduces a new white paper from Ackman-Ziff addressing refinancing challenges facing Opportunity Zone developments initiated during the low-rate environment of 2021 and 2022. Andy notes that while some predicted a dramatic “debt maturity wall” in commercial real estate, the reality has been more gradual.
Jimmy explains that many OZ development deals now face refinancing difficulties due to higher interest rates, softer rents, and increased operating expenses. These challenges are not unique to Opportunity Zone projects but affect ground-up development broadly.
Jimmy summarizes Ackman-Ziff’s proposed solution: introducing post-completion Opportunity Zone preferred equity to recapitalize projects, pay down senior debt, reduce leverage, and avoid forced exits. He describes this as a creative approach tailored to the structural constraints of Opportunity Zone investments.
OZ Insiders Updates and Upcoming Events
Jimmy provides updates on OZ Insiders, noting strong attendance and momentum across recent monthly Masterclasses. He recaps his recent “Opportunity Zone Outlook for 2026” Masterclass and references prior sessions led by Economic Innovation Group and other industry experts.
Looking ahead, Jimmy previews upcoming OZ Insiders programming, including:
- A February Masterclass by Brett Siglin focused on maximizing OZ 1.0 deals and addressing transition-rule questions
- A March session with Jonathan McGuire on substantial improvement and original use
- A networking dinner scheduled for April 9 in New York City
Jimmy also previews the next OZ Pitch Day, scheduled for March 12, 2026, describing it as a free online event featuring panels, educational content, and live deal presentations from Opportunity Zone sponsors.
Pick of the Month
For his pick of the month, Jimmy highlights an article by Frances Kern titled “Debunking Opportunity Zone Myths: What You Need to Know Before States Redesignate in 2026.” He summarizes several myths addressed in the piece, including misconceptions about who benefits from OZs, the prevalence of capital gains, and whether OZ capital applies only to real estate.
Andy’s pick of the month is Jimmy’s recent podcast interview with Angela Hwang of RevGen Consulting. Andy emphasizes Angela’s argument that 2026 should not be treated as a “dead zone” for marketing and capital-raising preparation, particularly for sponsors planning to raise OZ 2.0 funds in 2027.